This “Hurricane” analogy makes good sense:
This hurricane season will be quite different than seasons past. While most start with tracking tropical depressions that gain momentum and eventually develop into hurricanes graded on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, this season will be about subprime loan losses developing into a gale-force financial wind that may well destroy everything in it’s path.
Like all hurricanes, this one will have three components: The front wall, the eye and the back wall.
The subprime mortgage mess was the front wall of the hurricane currently rocking our financial system. Once-great investment banks, like Bears Stearn, were destroyed overnight. America’s largest home lender, Countrywide, was sold to Bank of America to avoid bankruptcy. Now the subprime mess may take down a commercial lender like Citigroup or B of A.
This is just the beginning of the devastation to come from this hurricane season.